The impact of restrictive measures is beginning to be felt in Retail turnover

Despite an apparent stabilisation of its turnover at 90% compared to 2019, Retail has already begun to feel the effects of the entry into force of more restrictive pandemic containment measures at the beginning of November.

De acordo com o mais recente relatório REDUNIQ Insights, construído com base em dados de transações entre o dia 15 de setembro (entrada em vigor do Estado de Contingência) e o dia 15 de novembro, as limitações à mobilidade impostas com o anúncio do novo Estado de Emergência já estão a cobrar os seus juros junto do setor retalhista português, em particular nos números da sua faturação no fim-de-semana de 14 e 15 de novembro, período em que se regista uma quebra de 43%.

Total Turnover 2020 (15 September - 15 November)

After retail turnover stabilised at -10% at the end of October compared to the same period last year, partly due to the absence of foreign tourists, November began with restrictions that precipitated a new phase of falls in consumption, clearly against what would normally happen given that we are entering a period of massive shopping (Black Friday and Christmas) par excellence.

The turnover recorded on the first weekend (14 and 15 November) of the curfew after 1pm represents a brutal drop of more than 43% compared to the weekend immediately before (7 and 8 November). In terms of sectors, the figures are particularly impressive: Fashion lost 63%, Perfumeries 57%, Electronics 50%, Restaurants 45% and Hyper & Supers 42%.

In the graph of weekly turnover trends, the picture is slightly different, but just as negative. After the last week of October (25th to 31st) saw total retail turnover grow by 4%, the first two weeks of November saw losses of 4% and 2% respectively.

These losses are even more pronounced when you realise that the invoicing figure for the week of 8 to 14 November is almost 12% lower than the figure for the week of 13 to 19 September.

Daily Food Retail Turnover (15th September - 15th November)

Daily Restaurant Turnover (15th September - 15th November)

Within this sectoral analysis, a curious fact should also be highlighted. Over the All Saints' holiday weekend, there was a sharp contraction in petrol stations' turnover. In particular, the 1st of November saw a drop of 40% compared to the same period in 2019 and a drop of 32% compared to the 29th of October 2020, the last day with permitted circulation between municipalities.

Evolution of the Total Number of Transactions (15 September - 15 November)

As an expression of new consumption models, it's interesting to note that in terms of transaction numbers the system is already at 2019 levels, although there are differences between the different categories in terms of the frequency and average ticket (again, given the absence of foreign cards in the system) of purchases.

Between 18 and 31 October, the total number of transactions fell by 3.3.% compared to the same period in 2019, while between 1 and 14 November the figure was 2.9%.

Analysing these figures must take into account the fact that 2020 is being characterised by a extraordinary growth in the use of contactless in what, in part, may constitute a transfer of cash payments to the contactless payments. In this context, part of the recovery in invoicing and the number of transactions can be explained by the dematerialisation of payments.

Segundo o documento REDUNIQ Insights, a ansiedade que se observa na generalidade dos operadores de retalho tem de ser, necessariamente, compreendida à luz de 3 fatores: (1) as perdas ainda observadas somam-se às brutais perdas acumuladas desde o início de março (cerca de 20% para o sistema como um todo), (2) as novas Medidas de Estado de Emergência “destroem” as expectativas de um bom Natal, período do ano que para muitas categorias representa mais de 1/3 da faturação do ano e (3) esta nova fase de retrocesso surge num momento em que o “estado da tesouraria” de muitas empresas está estruturalmente condicionado.

Evolution of Total Turnover 2019-2020 by District (Year-on-Year Variations)

The country's overall year-on-year change in October was negative at -9%. This negative percentage is largely due to the performance of Lisbon, Porto and Faro, which recorded year-on-year growth of -18%, -9% and -18%, respectively, in October. It should be noted that this analysis does not yet take into account the effects of the first fortnight of November, which the report anticipates could be significant in almost all districts.

The accumulated losses are deepening and amplifying the retail crisis. To get a sense of the scale of the problem, Lisbon, which accounted for around 1/3 of total turnover in 2019, has accumulated losses of over 25%. The data presented makes it clear that, until the country's major tourist centres recover, it will be difficult for the country as a whole to overcome the -10% barrier.

On a map coloured red, only the district of Portalegre, with a positive balance of 2% compared to last year, manages to remain in positive territory.

Contactless Billing - Year-on-Year Growth 2020-2019

Contactless is still immune to breakages. This technology cashless which allows faster and more hygienic payments with the simple approach of a contactless card or wearable to a payment terminal continues to go from strength to strength, with growth between 15 September and 15 November not only in terms of turnover, but also in its weight in the total turnover of Portuguese businesses.

Despite a slight drop in total contactless invoicing in September, October proved to be buoyant with an increase of 21% compared to the previous month. In year-on-year terms, contactless invoicing in September and October was largely in positive territory with growth of 308%.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the weight of contactless transactions has been growing steadily, currently accounting for more than a third of all turnover (34%), more than 4x more than in the same period in 2019.

De acordo com o relatório, este rápido crescimento do contactless is the expression of the democratisation of its use, having more than tripled its weight in total business turnover in just over 7 months (since March).

This is not unrelated to the role of the REDUNIQ which, through the provision of automatic payment terminals (TPA) that allow merchants to accept transactions contactless of its customers, is helping to transform the landscape of the payments industry in Portugal.

This authentic revolution has just gained another ally: REDUNIQ Smart - Android payment terminalIn addition to accepting contactless payments by card, chip or MB Way, it gives merchants the opportunity to develop and integrate management and billing apps, ticket printing, invoices or other applications tailored to their needs on the same POS.

Fully mobile and adaptable, this new Android payment terminal As well as offering consumers a fast and secure means of payment, it is particularly valuable for merchants as it allows them to manage their entire business (invoicing, payments, etc.) from a single device.